Train ridership in the United States will continue to grow after the pandemic ends. Here’s why.
1. The current wave of hand wringing about a post pandemic decline in train ridership simply means those people do not understand nor take into account the underlying economic and demographic factors that are driving train ridership in this century.
2. We know that after the pandemic people will travel again, go places, and see people again.
-We know this because it has already happened in New Zealand where COVID has essentially been eliminated, and where minor COVID flare ups are dealt with.
-We know that airlines expect traffic to pick up. We know no major hotel chains that have just called it quits. We know DisneyWorld is not closing permanently.
3. The continuing increase in people working from home contributes to increased train travel, it doesn’t inhibit it. People working from home know their only resource is their time, and trains save time. People who work from ‘home’ work from anywhere and travel for work and leisure.
4. The fundamental underlying economic force is that time is so valuable it cannot be wasted driving a car. With trains, one can work and travel at the same time.
5. Trains and train ridership are not a single issue separate from the overall transformation of our economy and way of life. Instead trains and train ridership are an integral part of the new economy and way of life.
6. Just one generation can and will drive the growth of trains. Generation Y, also called Millennials (born 1980-1999) and future generations of workers understand they can work on a train, unlike with cars. The also know trains are safer than cars.
7. In addition, Gen Y/ Millennials know trains save the environment and cost less than maintaining a car. Trains also go faster than cars.
8. After the pandemic, yes, travel patterns will change. “Commuter trains” might see declines as people don’t need to go to an office. But other travel patterns will increase. Business relies on face-to-face meetings. Tourism will resume its growth. Colleges and K-12 schools will be restructured into systems, where students and even teachers shuttle via train to other cities and back home the same day to take advantage of resources not available at any one school location.
9. There are nine shifts that Julie Coates and I identified in our predictive book, Nine Shift: Work, Life and education in the 21st century, released in 2000. They are inter-related, intertwined, one ‘whole.’ The economic shifts they predicted that mesh together are:
1. People work from home.
2 .Intranets replace offices.
3. Networks replace pyramids.
4. Trains replace cars.
5. Suburbs decline, dense neighborhoods increase.
Welcome the new age of trains.
William A. Draves is a futurist and co-author with Julie Coates of the 2000 book, “Nine Shift: Work, Life and Education in the 21st Century.” The book predicted the rise of trains and the decline of cars, as well as more people working from home and learning online. The BBC sent its Global Business reporter from China to River Falls, Wisconsin to interview Coates and Draves. The program was aired worldwide. In 2008, Draves keynoted a national train conference in Milwaukee, and in 2010 gained national media attention for proving that young people were driving less than previous generations. Draves co-founded the St. Croix Valley Rail Group, is a member of the West Central Wisconsin Rail Coalition, WISARP, and the Midwest High Speed Rail Alliance.
